Data Analytics real estate investment

The self-storage sector is entering 2025 with mounting evidence of a cyclical upswing. After a period of pandemic-driven highs followed by a modest correction, key indicators now signal that a rebound is underway. For both high-net-worth accredited investors and newcomers exploring their first real estate syndication, self-storage presents a confident, data-supported case for renewed growth. This article from Signal Ventures breaks down why smart capital is moving into self-storage now – before the broader market catches on – and why early positioning could be strategic. From Boom to Slowdown: A Resilient Sector Finds Its Floor Self-storage enjoyed unprecedented demand during the 2020–2021 period, but by 2023 the market faced headwinds. Elevated supply growth and a cooldown in moving activity (a primary demand driver) led to softer fundamentals. Property values pulled back roughly 20% from their 2021 peak, according to Green Street data. Occupancies, which had been in the mid-90% range at the pandemic peak, dipped back toward historical norms around the low 90s. National average occupancy in 2023 was about 91–92%, down a couple of percentage points from the prior year. Rental rates also retreated: industry-wide, street rents fell approximately 10% in 2023 after the COVID surge. Heavily supplied Sunbelt markets saw sharper rent declines (often in the 10–15% range), while dense coastal cities held steadier. In short, by late 2024 the sector had undergone a healthy correction, digesting new supply and reverting from unsustainably high COVID-era demand. Crucially, even during this slowdown, self-storage proved its resilience relative to other property types. Investors continued to view storage as a “safe haven” in a volatile CRE environment, transacting $3 billion in U.S. self-storage property sales during 2024 (over 800 facilities traded). The asset class maintained consistent cash flows despite rising interest rates and inflation. Cap rates (initial yields) stayed roughly flat through 2024 even as values dipped, reflecting investor belief in the sector’s long-term stability. In other words, the foundation held firm: occupancy levels, though off their highs, remained healthy, and savvy investors quietly started to accumulate assets at discounted prices. Early Signs of Stabilization in 2024 By late 2024 and early 2025, data began to show that the self-storage market had found its footing. The downward trend in rents is losing steam and even starting to reverse. In January 2025, the national average self-storage rent was only 0.7% lower than a year prior, a far smaller year-over-year drop than earlier in 2024 7 . More significantly, rents rose about 0.8% month-over-month in January – an unusual feat in what is typically the slow season. Likewise, April 2025 figures show national self-storage rents down a mere 0.4% year-over-year, essentially flat, with a return to sequential monthly growth heading into spring. In fact, 27 of the top 30 metro markets saw rents increase between March and April 2025. Markets like Chicago, Tampa, and Washington D.C. are now posting annual rent gains of 2–3%, reflecting constrained supply and sustained demand in those areas . The worst-performing cities (e.g. Austin, San Diego) are still seeing declines, but even those are moderating to single-digit percentages. This broad-based stabilization suggests the sector is at an inflection point. Occupancy rates tell a similar story. After ticking down from record highs, occupancies have largely plateaued at healthy levels, rather than spiraling further down. By Q4 2024, average occupancy at major self-storage REITs hovered around 91%, only slightly below the prior year. Essentially, facilities on the whole stopped losing tenants – a clear sign that demand has caught up to the new supply delivered in recent years. Industry observers note that “flat occupancy trends suggest the worst may be over”. Many operators used aggressive promotions in 2023–24 to keep occupancy up, accepting a temporary dip in revenue growth to retain customers. That strategy appears to have paid off: the customer base has largely stabilized, and now rental rates can be inched back up. Net operating income (NOI) trends, which were slightly negative in 2024, are expected to turn positive again in 2025 as the combination of steady occupancy and improving rents kicks in. National average street rates (per square foot) for self-storage units trended downward through 2023 but began rebounding modestly in 2024–2025, as shown above. Both climate-controlled (blue) and non-climate (gray) unit rates have firmed up after a period of decline (data through May 2025). The inflection in this rent curve is a key marker of the sector’s stabilization. The macroeconomic backdrop is also becoming more favorable. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022–2023 – which had cooled the housing market and self-storage demand – have given way to a more stable outlook. By early 2025, interest rates have plateaued, with the Fed even signaling potential rate cuts on the horizon 15 . While high borrowing costs in 2024 put a damper on self-storage development and transactions, the mere expectation of easing rates has improved investor sentiment. Consumer price inflation, which was running hot in 2022, has moderated in 2024, restoring some consumer confidence. Self-storage operators report improved leasing velocity as renters adjust to the new normal and feel more secure in their finances 15 . In short, the clouds are parting: with the economy on a stable footing (no recession materialized in 2024) and interest rate pressure likely past its peak, the stage is set for self- storage fundamentals to strengthen. Demand Drivers: Mobility, Housing, and Lifestyle Shifts One of the strongest indicators for self-storage demand is housing mobility – people moving households. Over the past two years, the U.S. saw an unusually low level of moving activity, which directly dampened storage usage. Why the slowdown? One factor is the housing market lockdown effect: roughly 56% of U.S. mortgage holders have interest rates below 4%, a byproduct of the ultra-low rates in 2020–21. With market mortgage rates now around 6–7%, homeowners have been reluctant to sell and lose their cheap loans. Fewer home sales means fewer moves, which in turn meant less demand for storage units (moves typically account for about 50% of self-storage usage). … Read more